Y Safle

Next week we are expected to be told that ‘A’ level exam results have improved for the 25th successive year.

Following on from my post last week, I have been collecting more data and extending my analysis of A level results. One of the points I made in my original posting was that since 2002, the new ‘A’ level syllabus and the split between AS and A2 ‘A’ levels has caused a definite jump in the figures. This jump in pass rate is presumed to be caused by the fact that weaker candidates who do badly at AS level will not go on to take the A2. This would be expected to go hand in hand with a drop in overall candidates at A2.

In this graph, it is possible to see this drop in candidates in 2002, but the numbers are picking up quickly and are not sustained. Meanwhile it is not only pass rates that jump in 2002, but also A grades. Take a look at this graph to see the effect.

If the jump in numbers passing were simply due to weaker candidates not taking the exam, then why is there a sudden jump in A grade candidates? It is possible that this jump is related to more people starting A level courses so that the candidates continuing to A2 are stronger as a population, but this seems unlikely.

We can see this same effect in the graph of all grades, which I have updated with data for 2002 and 2003 from the one I produced last week:

I have also updated the graph with estimated data from 1982 to 1991 and actual data from there on. The estimate was based on what data we have for 1982 and a (somewhat unsound) assumption that the years 1983 - 1991 showed linear trends. This graph is really a bit of fun, but if you took ‘A’ levels in the 1980s you can run your finger along from your grade boundary to the current grade boundary to “translate” your results to today’s values! If you took your ‘A’ levels prior to 1982, use the 1982 values, which were broadly similar for previous years.

Don’t read too much into this graph. The ‘A’ levels are different exams to what they were in 1982. Schools are different too, and people have much greater access to information. There may be plenty of reasons why grade inflation is happening, and those who did well or badly in the 1980s may have failed to thrive or exceeded their expectations if they were sitting the exam now.

What is unfortunate, however, is that with so many people passing at grades A-C, the other grades are largely suprfluous, and it is hard to distinguish the best candidates. In this, ‘A’ level is no longer the gold standard it used to be, which is a pity.