Y Safle

I have been detailing a reply to a correspondent, MW, about speeding. He argued (against the evidence) that most people break the speed limits, and that those who do not break speed limits tend not to have accidents. On investigation, both claims were clearly false - but MW preferred anecdote and prejudice to colour his views. I am reposting MWs message now, to show how easily we can make errors in our decisions if we base those decisions on anecdote and hunches.

In thi sthird article, we look at another of MWs claims - this time based on second hand reporting and our tendency to misremember what surveys are saying to bolster our world views.

MW wrote:

3) The UK has the highest child mortality rate attributable to RTAs in Europe. [...] I heard it on the Beeb, in a discussion with one of the many Transport Ministers. I can’t be bothered to dig up a better source than that.

It was a pity that MW posted this without bothering to look it up, as he would have spared himself some embarrassement had he done so. MW is not alone in misremembering media reports. Frankly, I do so nearly every time - and I frequently find that when I go back and read the reports again, that I have the details wrong.

But MW could not be bothered to look up his sources, so I had to tell him he was wrong.

The UK road death rate is, of course, one of the lowest (I think probably the lowest - but I do not have latest figures in front of me. It was the lowest when I replied to MW) in Europe per head of population. We are about three or four times less likely to die in our cars than the French (or Americans for that matter), but our figures show that we have a poor record on pedestrian death, and particularly child pedestrian death.

We are not the worst in Europe. According to Department of Transport Figures I see that the UK child pedestrian death rate was .9 per 100,000 population. Which compares unfavourably with Austria, Denmark, Finland, Italy (.5); Netherlands, Germany (.6) and especially Sweden (.2). However we are streets ahead of Portugal (2.8), and significantly lower than Ireland (1.2), Luxembourg (1.3), and Spain (1.0). I also note that the comparison is only with Western Europe - although I expect that Eastern Europe might have lower figures, as there are generally fewer cars there.

So again your facts are wrong. Our child pedestrian death rate is poor, but not the worst in Europe. It is however a significant blot on our otherwise very good driving record.

We do, however, have a lower overall mortality rate than most of the rest of Europe, so I have discovered, which is food for thought.

We also might note that children living in the most socially deprived areas of the UK are up to three times as likely to be hit by a car than those living in the most affluent parts of the country. ["Streets Ahead", Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) and the Imperial College Centre for Transport Studies (ICCTS)]

There are no doubt many factors for this, but it would perhaps be just as productive in reducing the child death toll to lift such children out of this social deprivation. This would also have long term benefits for the children and society as a whole… but it would cost more and take longer to implement than a speed hump and yet another speed limit, wouldn’t it.